2026 Blue Book on Humanoid Robot Industry Research

Writer：tilireducer Time：2026-09-28 14:07:47 Browse：162℃

If you are still hesitating whether humanoid robots are just "conceptual hype", Guosen Securities' 166-page blue book suggests that 2026 will be the first year of large-scale implementation of AI+ robots, but the industry will usher in a round of consolidation - the survival condition is not how cool the action is, but whether the closed loop of "real-world data → model iteration → stability → reproducible ROI" can work. Let's start with the value of the industrial chain. Tesla's Optimus has 28 joints, including 14 rotary joints and 14 linear joints. Rotary joints use harmonic reducers, while linear joints use planetary roller screws. The combined cost of the reducer, screw, motor, and sensor for a single unit is in the range of 200,000 RMB (domestic alternative solution), with the screw accounting for the highest proportion of value. After mass production, the unit price of the screw is expected to drop from the tens of thousands to one or two thousand RMB. This cost reduction path determines who can enjoy the first wave of benefits with precision machining capabilities. The domestic shipment data has been released. Yushu Technology's prospectus reveals that 5,215 humanoid robots were shipped in 2025, excluding wheeled dual-arm models. Zhiyuan Robotics has cumulatively produced over 1,000 units. Although the base number is small, the growth rate is rapid. The "iPhone moment" for humanoid robots has not yet arrived, but the "era of functional machines" has already begun. Several subdivisions in the industry chain: The reducer track is currently characterized by the parallel development of harmonic and planetary technologies. Tesla and Universal Robots opt for harmonic technology, while Yushu utilizes planetary technology (with self-developed joint modules equipped with dual encoders). RV reducers, due to their large size and high cost, are not currently in use. Cycloid reducers, as a novel solution, are emerging - combining precision (superior to planetary) and load capacity (stronger than harmonic), while also being compact in size and lightweight (better than RV). Kemeng's innovative PEEK lightweight cycloid reducer achieves a 30% space compression and a 200% improvement in impact resistance. The lead screw is currently the most valuable and highly protected segment. The machining accuracy of planetary roller lead screws is required to reach P0 level. A thread grinding machine costs nearly ten million yuan and has a delivery lead time of over a year. Many domestic enterprises capable of producing high-end lead screws have transitioned from the fields of industrial machine tools and automotive lead screws, where machining processes and equipment share commonalities. The current unit price of a six-axis force sensor is 10,000 to 20,000 yuan. GGII predicts that by 2030, the market size of the humanoid robot field will reach 13.8 billion yuan. If the price drops to the thousand-yuan range, it will become standard to equip one on each wrist and ankle. A pragmatic judgment: Humanoid robots will not emerge overnight, but the supply chain is already quietly warming up. Factories that produce precision machining, motors, and sensors should now connect with OEMs for sample verification.